2021 Floating Production Forecast

December 14, 2020

More than 200 known projects in the planning stage are likely to require a floating production system for field development. All have reached a level of planning where the production solution has been narrowed to a few options -- including use of a floating production facility. But an investment decision is needed to transform these planned projects into contracts for production facilities -- a decision that will be influenced by underlying market conditions. In our 2021 forecast report we examine a dozen business drivers that will shape market conditions in the deepwater sector and drive the pace of production floater orders over the next five years. Some drivers are positive, some negative. Our forecast of production floater orders through 2025 is based on a detailed assessment of the probability of each project in the planning queue reaching the investment decision under three specified market scenarios. We include details for contract timing, buying power location, estimated capex, etc. This year’s forecast of orders and capex is significantly lower than last year. The number of FPSO and FPU orders between 2021/25 in our most likely scenario is 31% lower than forecast for 2020/24. FLNG orders are down 17%, FSRU orders are down 40%. Capex associated with building and conversion contracts is 15% lower than last year’s forecast. The lower numbers are primarily the result of the economic shock caused by Covid 19 -- a black swan that wreaked temporary havoc in the deepwater business sector. All is detailed in our new 2021 forecast report

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