Archive

June 2017 Monthly Floating Production Systems Report

June 18, 2017 - Update

The June WER report reviews the negative impact of excess crude inventory on oil prices. Crude prices have been driven back into the mid-$40s. But as described in the report, despite near term pricing weakness, production floater orders have been heating up. Over the past month ENI proceeded with its floating LNG project in Mozambique and ExxonMobil made the investment decision on the Liza oil project offshore Guyana. Looking forward, Petrobras is poised to finally proceed with orders for two large FPSOs for Brazil and, looking a bit further out, more than a dozen production floater contracts are in sight by end-2018. Details for these upcoming contracts are in the report. Also in the report are details for 201 floater projects in the planning stage, 47 production or storage floaters now on order, 292 floating production units currently in service and 29 production floaters available for redeployment contracts. Charts in the report update the location where floating production and storage systems are being planned, operating, being built and to be installed. Accompanying excel spreadsheets provide the report data in sortable format. Information is current as of 17 June.

May 2017 Monthly Floating Production Systems Report

May 22, 2017 - Update

The May WER report examines the rate at which oil inventory is declining, looks at the rebalancing now taking place in the oil market and comments on the narrow price range within which crude is trading. The report also profiles the latest FPSO tender issued by Petrobras, describes the lease for an FSRU for use in India and discusses the decision by Anadarko to suspend the Shenandoah project in the Gulf of Mexico. In the data section of the report are details for 202 floater projects in the planning stage, 46 production or storage floaters now on order, 295 floating production units currently in service and 29 production floaters available for redeployment contracts. Charts in the report update the location where floating production and storage systems are being planned, operating, being built and to be installed. Accompanying excel spreadsheets provide the report data in a sortable format. Information is current as of 21 May.

April 2017 Monthly Floating Production Systems Report

April 21, 2017 - Update

The April WER report looks at the slow decline that has begun in global oil inventory as OPEC/Russia production cuts over the past quarter reduce crude supply. But, as discussed in the report, re-balancing of supply and demand is hitting headwinds. As OPEC/Russia output has fallen, near term oil demand growth appears to have tapered off and US shale producers have been ramping up crude output -- adding to uncertainty about future oil prices. In the report we describe the most recent FSRU order and discuss a new barrier placed in the path of Petrobras' recovery -- an injunction that ties up $1.25 billion cash from an already completed transaction. We also profile the long term growth of floating production systems and estimate the number of employed and employable production units likely to be in inventory at end 2017 and 2019. In the data section of the report are details for 202 floater projects in the planning stage, 48 production or storage floaters now on order, 292 floating production units currently in service and 29 production floaters available for redeployment contracts. Charts in the report update the location where floating production and storage systems are being planned, operating, being built and to be installed. Accompanying excel spreadsheets provide the report data in sortable format. Information is current as of 21 April.

March 2017 Monthly Floating Production Systems Report

March 21, 2017 - Update

The March WER report revisits our October 2016 five year forecast of production floater orders. Some assumptions underlying our forecast have been impacted – positively or negatively -- by developments over the past six months. They include a downturn in expected oil prices, an election in the US that has raised the prospects for accelerated US oil and gas E&D, a continued inability of Petrobras to regain traction following the corruption scandal, a more rapid expected increase in cost of capital and a faster pace of rebound in oil company capital spending. Given the changes, we provide an updated projection of orders over the 2017/21 time period. We also provide a list of more than 70 FPSO/FPU projects likely to move to the contracting stage over the next five years -- segmented into three time periods. In the data section of the report are details for 199 floater projects in the planning stage, 48 production or storage floaters now on order, 294 floating production units currently in service and 28 production floaters available for redeployment contracts. Charts in the report update the location where floating production and storage systems are being planned, operating, being built and to be installed. Accompanying excel spreadsheets provide the report data in sortable format. Information is current as of 20 March.

February 2017 Monthly Floating Production Systems Report

February 21, 2017 - Update

The February WER report highlights the narrow range in which crude prices have been trading since OPEC implemented production cuts and discusses the outlook for breakout from this range over the several years. We provide details for several recent production floater LOIs, including an LOI for an FPSO for use offshore Vietnam and an LOI for up to seven regas carriers capable of use on future FSRU contracts. We also review the local content dispute that has stopped Petrobras from awarding the Libra Pilot and Sepia FPSO EPC contracts -- a dispute that will be difficult to resolve under the present social and political dynamics in Brazil. In the data section of the report are details for 198 floater projects in the planning stage, 48 production or storage floaters now on order, 293 floating production units currently in service and 28 production floaters available for redeployment contracts. Charts in the report update the location where floating production and storage systems are being planned, operating, being built and to be installed. Accompanying excel spreadsheets provide the report data in sortable format. Information is current as of 20 February.

January 2017 Monthly Floating Production Systems Report

January 20, 2017 - Update

The January WER report highlights the EPC contract just placed for an oil production floater, the first EPC contract for a major FPU since the contracting hiatus began in mid-2015. Also in the report are details for an FSRU ordered for use in India and a small FSRU ordered for Indonesia. We provide an update of the status of a pending FLNG award and review the future status of Petrobras’ serial FPSO hull program. In the data section of the report are details for 201 floater projects in the planning stage, 51 production or storage floaters now on order, 288 floating production units currently in service and 28 production floaters available for redeployment contracts. Charts in the report update the location where floating production and storage systems are being planned, operating, being built and to be installed. Accompanying excel spreadsheets provide the report data in sortable format. Information is current as of 17 January.

December 2016 Monthly Floating Production Systems Report

December 20, 2016 - Update

The December WER report examines whether OPEC’s decision to limit crude production could help accelerate deepwater project starts over the next 12 to 24 months, given 3 billion barrels of oil stocks in global inventory and 5000+ drilled-but-uncompleted shale wells in the US ready to be fracked. We also review BPs decision to sanction the Mad Dog 2 deepwater GOM project, assess Hoegh and Maran’s orders for seven speculative FSRUs, discuss Petrobras continuing difficulties getting back to orderly business conditions and profile the energy industry “dream team” about to take cabinet positions in the incoming US administration. In the data section of the report are details for 200 floater projects in the planning stage, 54 production or storage floaters now on order, 284 floating production units currently in service and 29 production floaters available for redeployment contracts. Charts in the report update the location where floating production and storage systems are being planned, operating, being built and to be installed. Accompanying excel spreadsheets provide the report data in sortable format. Information is current as of 20 December.

November 2016 Monthly Floating Production Systems Report

November 22, 2016 - Update

The November WER report looks at the impact that the US election will have on oil and gas development and the extent to which deepwater will benefit or lose as a consequence of the incoming US administration policies. We also highlight the growing magnitude and competitiveness of US shale development -- which is increasingly threatening future deepwater capital spending – and identify the five floater projects next in line to become EPC contracts. In the data section of the report are details for 198 floater projects in the planning stage, 51 production or storage floaters now on order, 284 floating production units currently in service and 25 production floaters available for redeployment contracts. Charts in the report update the location where floating production and storage systems are being planned, operating, being built and to be installed. Accompanying excel spreadsheets provide the report data in sortable format. Information is current as of 20 November.

2017 Floating-Production-Systems Forecast

November 13, 2016 - Annual

The WER 2017 Annual Forecast Report (1) presents a detailed analysis of the business drivers that will shape the global deepwater business environment over the next five years and (2) provides our forecast of floating production system orders to be placed between 2017 and 2021. This is our 20th annual forecast of floating production system orders. The new forecast is segmented into five types of production units -- FPSOs, FPUs (production semis, TLPs, spars, barges), FLNGs, FSRUs and FSOs – and we project the number of units to be ordered, composition of the orders and capex to be generated in each segment. An objective, bottom-up forecasting methodology is employed, using projects in the planning stage and our assessment of underlying business conditions as the basis for projecting equipment orders over the 2017/21 time frame. In the data section of the report are details for 197 floater projects in the planning stage, 54 production or storage floaters now on order, 284 floating production units currently in service and 34 production floaters available for redeployment contracts. Charts depict the location where floating production and storage systems are being planned, operating and being built. Accompanying excel spreadsheets provide the report data in sortable format. Information is current as of 27 October 2016.

September 2016 Monthly Floating Production Systems Report

September 20, 2016 - Update

The September WER report provides an overview of the three FSRUs and FSO contracted over the previous month. We also review the sequence of events leading to Petrobras cancelling the Libra Pilot and Sepia FPSO tenders and describe plans to restart the competition with revised rules. In the data section of the report are details for 194 floater projects in the planning stage, 55 production or storage floaters now on order, 281 floating production units currently in service and 31 production floaters available for redeployment contracts. Charts in the report update the location where floating production and storage systems are being planned, operating, being built and to be installed. Accompanying excel spreadsheets provide the report data in sortable format. Information is current as of 19 September.

August 2016 Monthly Floating Production Systems Report

August 17, 2016 - Update

The August WER report has an up-to-date overview of the FSRU sector. The floating regasification sector has been a bright light in an otherwise difficult market over the past 18 months. In the report we provide an overview of the 20 FSRU installation now in operation, 10 FSRUs currently on order and 30 new projects now in the planning stage that potentially require an FSRU. In the data section of the report are details for 240 floater projects in the planning stage, 54 production or storage floaters now on order, 281 floating production units currently in service and 30 production floaters available for redeployment contracts. Charts in the report update the location where floating production and storage systems are being planned, operating, being built and to be installed. Accompanying excel spreadsheets provide the report data in sortable format. Information is current as of 17 August.

July 2016 Monthly Floating Production Systems Report

July 28, 2016 - Update

The July WER report has an up-to-date overview of the FLNG sector. This sector has been hit by the global LNG oversupply and depressed LNG pricing -- which has impacted investment in new land and floating LNG production facilities. We provide details for the two FLNGs completed over the past quarter, profile the six FLNGs now on order and assess whether several of these orders could be cancelled if market conditions do not improve. We then provide details for the Coral FLNG about to be contracted for use in Mozambique, profile 23 floating liquefaction projects now in various stages of planning and assess the likely timing of FLNG contracts on these projects given expected market conditions. In the data section of the report are details for 241 floater projects in the planning stage, 53 production or storage floaters now on order, 281 floating production units currently in service and 29 oil/gas production floaters available for redeployment contracts. Charts in the report update the location where floating production and storage systems are being planned, operating, being built and to be installed. Accompanying excel spreadsheets provide the report data in sortable format. Information is current as of 22 July.

June 2016 Monthly Floating Production Systems Report

June 19, 2016 - Update

The June WER report describes changes in the development plan and contracting strategy in several near term floater projects, reviews the contractual implications of a premature arrival of an FSRU in Ghana where offtake infrastructure has not yet been built and provides background for Petrobras’ request for revised bids on the Libra Pilot and Sepia FPSOs and questions whether one or both tenders will be cancelled. We also update the underlying market fundamentals, which continue to strengthen. In the data section of the report are details for 246 floater projects in the planning stage, 55 production or storage floaters now on order, 281 floating production units currently in service and 36 production floaters available for redeployment contracts. Charts in the report update the location where floating production and storage systems are being planned, operating, being built and to be installed. Accompanying excel spreadsheets provide the report data in sortable format. Information is current as of 19 June.

May 2016 Monthly Floating Production Systems Report

May 25, 2016 - Update

The May WER report examines the timing of future production floater contracts given the continuing rebound in crude prices, highlights several developments that could suggest a reversal of Petrobras’ downturn is underway and provides our assessment of the likelihood that 17 FPSOs now being marketed for redeployment will land field contracts over the next few years. In the data section of the report are details for 243 floater projects in the planning stage, 58 production or storage floaters now on order, 278 floating production units currently in service and 36 production floaters available for redeployment contracts. Charts in the report update the location where floating production and storage systems are being planned, operating, being built and to be installed. Accompanying excel spreadsheets provide the report data in sortable format. Information is current as of 20 May.

April 2016 Monthly Floating Production Systems Report

April 27, 2016 - Update

The April WER report updates the status of the bidding process for two FPSOs to be contracted by Petrobras, discusses the Excelerate FSRU deal in Bangladesh and looks at the continued ramp upwards in oil prices. In the data section of the report are details for 242 floater projects in the planning stage, 62 production or storage floaters now on order, 280 floating production units currently in service and 30 production floaters available for redeployment contracts. Charts in the report update the location where floating production and storage systems are being planned, operating, being built and to be installed. Accompanying excel spreadsheets provide the report data in sortable format. Information is current as of 20 April.

March 2016 Monthly Floating Production Systems Report + Revised Five Year Forecast

March 21, 2016 - Update

The March WER report recalibrates the 2016/20 forecast of production floater orders made last October. The orders forecast is reduced 12% based on the deterioration in market conditions over the past six months. Oil prices have fallen more than anticipated, upstream investment spending has been significantly cutback, short cycle upstream projects have risen in priority, Petrobras continues to decline and FLNG projects have had several setbacks. But we still see more than 80 production floater contracts over the next five years. Backing up the revised forecast is an up-to-date listing of the projects we see leading to a production floater contract (1) over the next 18 months, (2) within the next 18 to 36 months and (3) 36 to 60 months out. In the data section of the report are details for 242 floater projects in the planning stage, 62 production or storage floaters now on order, 280 floating production units currently in service and 30 production floaters available for redeployment contracts. Charts in the report update the location where floating production and storage systems are being planned, operating, being built and to be installed. Accompanying excel spreadsheets provide the report data in sortable format. Information is current as of 21 March.

February 2016 Monthly Floating Production Systems Report

February 22, 2016 - Update

The February WER report looks at the future prospects of three FPSOs recently released from field, describes the competition for an elusive West African FSRU contract, reviews Hoegh’s decision to join Excelerate in exiting the FLNG market, assesses Petrobras timing and ability to proceed with two pre-salt FPSO tenders and discusses Chevron’s rationale in cancelling a GOM ultra-deepwater project. In the data section of the report are details for 257 floater projects in the planning stage, 62 production or storage floaters now on order, 280 floating production units currently in service and 30 production floaters available for redeployment contracts. Charts in the report update the location where floating production and storage systems are being planned, operating, being built and to be installed. Accompanying excel spreadsheets provide the report data in sortable format. Information is current as of 22 February.

January 2016 Monthly Floating Production Systems Report

January 22, 2016 - Update

The January WER report provides details for the Sea Lion FPSO FEED contract, profiles two FLNGs about to be completed, discusses the impact of the oil price collapse on deepwater investment decisions, updates the Petrobras situation and looks at ConocoPhillips’ decision to exit deepwater exploration. In the data section of the report are details for 255 floater projects in the planning stage, 65 production or storage floaters now on order, 281 floating production units currently in service and 27 production floaters available for redeployment contracts. Charts in the report update the location where floating production and storage systems are being planned, operating, being built and to be installed. Accompanying excel spreadsheets provide the report data in sortable format. Information is current as of 22 January.

December 2015 Monthly Floating Production Systems Report

December 22, 2015 - Update

The December WER report provides details for the LNG FSU ordered for storage use in Bahrain, questions whether the Ghana FSRU terminal contract could have reopened, discusses the continues downward trend of Petrobras and profiles two recent field closures that offer cautionary tales for FPSO lenders and GOM lease holders. In the data section of the report are details for 252 floater projects in the planning stage, 72 production or storage floaters now on order, 275 floating production units currently in service and 27 production floaters available for redeployment contracts. Charts in the report depict the location where floating production and storage systems are being planned, operating, being built and to be installed. Accompanying excel spreadsheets provide the report data in sortable format. Information is current as of 22 December.

November 2015 Monthly Floating Production Systems Report

November 24, 2015 - Update

The November WER report identifies FPSOs likely to come off-field in 2016 and profiles their suitability for redeployment. Details are provided for two new FSRU terminal contracts and we discuss the risk premium on future FPSO leases backed by a long term Petrobras lease. In the data section of the report are details for 251 floater projects in the planning stage, 71 production or storage floaters now on order, 275 floating production units currently in service and 27 production floaters available for redeployment contracts. Charts in the report depict the location where floating production and storage systems are being planned, operating, being built and to be installed. Accompanying excel spreadsheets provide the report data in sortable format. Information is current as of 23 November.

October 2015 Report - Five Year Forecast of Production Floater Orders

October 27, 2015 - Annual

The WER 2016 Annual Forecast Report (1) presents a detailed analysis of the future business environment likely to prevail in the global deepwater sector through 2020 and (2) provides our forecast of floating production system orders to be placed over the next five years. The forecast is segmented into eight types of production units -- FPSOs, Production Semis, TLPs, Spars, Barges, FLNGs, FSRUs and FSOs – and we project the number of units to be ordered, composition of the orders and Capex to be generated. A realistic, bottom-up forecasting methodology is employed, using projects in the planning stage and our assessment of underlying business conditions as the basis for projecting equipment orders over the 2016/20 time frame. This is IMA’s 19th annual forecast of floating production system orders since IMA began the floater forecasts in 1996. In the data section of the report are details for 247 floater projects in the planning stage, 69 production or storage floaters now on order, 279 floating production units currently in service and 23 production floaters available for redeployment contracts. Charts depict the location where floating production and storage systems are being planned, operating and being built.

September 2015 Monthly Floating Production Systems Report

September 25, 2015 - Update

The September WER report provides known details for the Culzean FSO contract, summarizes Excelerate’s reason for terminating the Lavaca FLNG project, profiles how futures traders see Brent around $63 at end of the decade and discusses the continuing financial deterioration of Petrobras. Also in the report is a market share breakdown of classification societies in the FPSO sector. In the data section of the report are details for 247 floater projects in the planning stage, 69 production or storage floaters now on order, 279 floating production units currently in service and 23 production floaters available for redeployment contracts. New to this issue is the unique IMO number for each production and storage unit in service, on order and available. Charts depict the location where floating production and storage systems are being planned, operating and being built. Accompanying excel spreadsheets provide the report data in sortable format. Information is current as of 23 Septembe

August 2015 Monthly Floating Production Systems Report

August 20, 2015 - Update

The August WER report provides known details for two FPSO tenders about to be released by Petrobras, describes the FSRU contract awarded to BW Group in August and assesses whether the suspended Rosebank FPSO contract could be soon reactivated. In the data section of the report are details for 246 floater projects in the planning stage, 70 production or storage floaters now on order, 276 floating production units currently in service and 24 production floaters available for redeployment contracts. New to this issue is the production start date (month/year) for all production and storage units in operation – and we identify the likely scrap candidates among the units currently off field. Charts depict the location where floating production and storage systems are being planned, operating and being built. Information is current as of 20 August.

July 2015 Monthly Floating Production Systems Report

July 21, 2015 - Update

The July WER report examines the impact of the 2015 Petrobras investment plan on FPSO contracts over the next several years. Also included is an overview of ownership of FPSOs by leasing contractor and field operator – and we profile the growth in FPSOs in service and orders for FPSOs over the past ten years. In the data section of the report are details for 244 floater projects in the planning stage, 70 production or storage floaters now on order, 261 oil/gas floating production units and 15 floating regas units currently in service and 24 production floaters available for redeployment contracts. Charts depict the location where floating production and storage systems are being planned, operating and being built. Information is current as of 20 July.

June 2015 Monthly Floating Production Systems Report

June 18, 2015 - Update

The June WER report provides up-to-date details for 241 floater projects in the planning stage, 73 production or storage floaters now on order, 261 oil/gas floating production units and 15 floating regas units currently in service and 24 production floaters available for redeployment contracts. Charts depict the location where floating production and storage systems are being planned, operating and being built. In the analysis section is a review of recent production floater orders and an update of the evolving Petrobras recovery. Information is current as of 17 June.

May 2015 Monthly Floating Production Systems Report

May 18, 2015 - Update

The May WER report updates the near term market outlook and profiles 30 floating production projects likely to evolve into major equipment contracts over the next 18 months. In the data sections of the report are details for 238 floater projects in the planning stage, 72 production or storage floaters now on order, 262 oil/gas floating production units and 15 floating regas units currently in service and 25 production floaters available for redeployment contracts. Charts depict the location where floating production and storage systems are being planned, operating and being built. Information is current as of 18 May.

April 2015 Monthly Floating Production Systems Report

April 20, 2015 - Update

The April WER report provides details for 239 floater projects in the planning stage, 69 production or storage floaters now on order, 265 oil/gas floating production units and 15 floating regas units currently in service and 25 production floaters available for redeployment contracts. New to this monthly report is a detailed map summarizing where floating production and storage systems are now being built. The report also includes an update of the Petrobras situation (which could be easing) -- plus information on the Shell acquisition of BG, the creditor seizure of OSX 3 and the bumpy start-up of the new FSRU terminal in Pakistan. Information is current as of 17 April.

March 2015 Monthly Floating Production Systems Report

March 26, 2015 - Update

The March WER report recalibrates the 2015/19 forecast of production floater orders made last October. A combination of a 45% drop in oil prices and an unexpected meltdown of Petrobras have shaken the foundation of the floating production market. As a result around 20% of floating production project starts forecast last October now look likely to be deferred beyond the five year forecast period. Details are provided in the report. Also included in the report are details for 237 floater projects in the planning stage, 73 production or storage floaters now on order, 260 oil/gas floating production units and 15 floating regas units currently in service and 23 production floaters off field and available for redeployment contracts. Information is current as of 18 March.

February 2015 Monthly Floating Production Systems Report

February 23, 2015 - Update

The February WER report identifies and updates details for 244 floater projects in the planning stage, 71 production or storage floaters now on order, 260 oil/gas floating production units and 15 floating regas units currently in service and 23 production floaters off field and available for redeployment contracts. Information is current as of 15 February. Also in the report are details for a gas/condensate FPSO ordered during the preceding month, description of two near term FSRU planned projects, delay of an FLNG project resulting from lower LNG prices and the decommissioning of an FPSO.

January 2015 Monthly Floating Production Systems Report

January 15, 2015 - Update

The January WER report identifies and updates details for 241 floater projects in the planning stage, 74 production or storage floaters now on order, 259 oil/gas floating production units and 13 floating regas units currently in service and 23 production floaters off field and looking for redeployment contracts. Information is current as of 15 January. Also in the report is a recap of activity in 2014, providing details for 25 production and storage floaters ordered during the year, and our outlook for production floater orders in 2015.

December 2014 Monthly Floating Production Systems Report

December 1, 2014 - Update

The December WER report identifies and updates details for 245 floater projects in the planning stage, 72 production or storage floaters now on order, 259 oil/gas floating production units and 13 floating regas units currently in service and 25 production floaters off field and looking for redeployment contracts. Information is current as on 19 December. Also in the report are details for several production floaters ordered since November, a review of the risk to near term orders from the Petrobras investigation and the impact the oil price collapse is having on floater investment decisions.

November 2014 Monthly Floating Production Systems Report

November 1, 2014 - Update

The November WER report identifies and updates details for 244 floater projects in the planning stage, 74 production or storage floaters currently on order, 258 oil/gas floating production units and 13 floating regas units currently in service and 25 production floaters off field and looking for redeployment contracts. Information is current as of 25 November. Also in the report is a recap of activity over the past month and an analysis of the impact of the Petrobras implosion and oil price downturn on near term demand for new equipment.

October 2014 - Five Year Industry Outlook and Orders Forecast

October 23, 2014 - Annual

The October WER report provides an overview and profile of the floating production sector, examines the underlying business drivers for future industry demand and presents our forecast of production and storage unit orders over the next five years. The forecast -- which employs a bottom-up approach based on 230+ known projects in the planning stage -- is segmented into eight categories of floating production systems. In each of the eight segments we forecast the number of orders for additional units over the 2015 to 2019 time frame under three sets of market assumptions. An estimate is made for capital expenditure associated with future orders. 115 exhibits and three appendices contain details supporting the forecast.